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You may wonder, if a simple, well-performing model exists to go from the data to the targets (the common-sense baseline), why doesn’t the model you’re training find it and improve on it? Because this simple solution isn’t what your training setup is looking for. The space of models in which you’re searching for a solution – that is, your hypothesis space – is the space of all possible two-layer networks with the configuration you defined. These networks are already fairly complicated. When you’re looking for a solution with a space of complicated models, the simple, well-performing baseline may be unlearnable, even if it’s technically part of the hypothesis space. That is a pretty significant limitation of machine learning in general: unless the learning algorithm is hardcoded to look for a specific kind of simple model, parameter learning can sometimes fail to find a simple solution to a simple problem.

The first fully connected approach didn’t do well, but that doesn’t mean machine learning isn’t applicable to this problem. The previous approach first flattened the time series, which removed the notion of time from the input data. Let’s instead look at the data as what it is: a sequence, where causality and order matter. You’ll try a recurrent-sequence processing model – it should be the perfect fit for such sequence data, precisely because it exploits the temporal ordering of data points, unlike the first approach.

Instead of the LSTM layer introduced in the previous section, you’ll use the GRU layer , developed by Chung et al.in 2014. Gated recurrent unit (GRU) layers work using the same principle as LSTM, but they’re somewhat streamlined and thus cheaper to run (although they may not have as much representational power as LSTM). This trade-off between computational expensiveness and representational power is seen everywhere in machine learning.

The results are plotted below. Much better! You can significantly beat the common-sense baseline, demonstrating the value of machine learning as well as the superiority of recurrent networks compared to sequence-flattening dense networks on this type of task.

The new validation MAE of ~0.265 (before you start significantly overfitting) translates to a mean absolute error of 2.35˚C after denormalization. That’s a solid gain on the initial error of 2.57˚C, but you probably still have a bit of a margin for improvement.

It’s evident from the training and validation curves that the model is overfitting: the training and validation losses start to diverge considerably after a few epochs. You’re already familiar with a classic technique for fighting this phenomenon: dropout, which randomly zeros out input units of a layer in order to break happenstance correlations in the training data that the layer is exposed to. But how to correctly apply dropout in recurrent networks isn’t a trivial question. It has long been known that applying dropout before a recurrent layer hinders learning rather than helping with regularization. In 2015, Yarin Gal, as part of his PhD thesis on Bayesian deep learning, determined the proper way to use dropout with a recurrent network: the same dropout mask (the same pattern of dropped units) should be applied at every timestep, instead of a dropout mask that varies randomly from timestep to timestep. What’s more, in order to regularize the representations formed by the recurrent gates of layers such as layer_gru and layer_lstm , a temporally constant dropout mask should be applied to the inner recurrent activations of the layer (a recurrent dropout mask). Using the same dropout mask at every timestep allows the network to properly propagate its learning error through time; a temporally random dropout mask would disrupt this error signal and be harmful to the learning process.

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez isn't playing it safe with her climate change plan. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)
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In a major upset on Tuesday night, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old Latina democratic socialist from the Bronx, FULLER BUST Mix and Match Strap Detail Plunge Top with Hook and Eye DDG Red Asos Extremely Sale Online bw2JXZG
the longtime US representative Joe Crowley in the New York primaries. In the overwhelmingly Democratic district, she is practically certain to win a seat in Congress during the general election in November.

Ocasio-Cortez’s climate-change platform would become the most progressive of that of any sitting Congressperson in the Democratic party—and her primary victory catapults that platform into the mainstream.

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magazine earlier this week. “We need a Marshall Plan for renewable energy in the United States. The idea that the Democratic Party needs to be moderate is what’s holding us back on this.”

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for staving off dangerous levels of climate change is rapidly closing, and dramatically (and quickly) reducing emissions is the most direct route to avoiding potential environmental catastrophe. Rapidly decarbonizing the US economy by completely shifting to renewables is the best and maybe only way to actually make a difference in climate-change mitigation; any milder approach will almost certainly lead us to miss that window.

The Huffington Post points out that Ocasio-Cortez’s 100%-renewable plan puts her in agreement with a coalition of US mayors who have committed to the goal of complete decarbonization within their own cities . But Ocasio-Cortez, who has an economics degree, also couples that plank with an economic plan she is calling the Green New Deal.

“The Green New Deal we are proposing will be similar in scale to the mobilization efforts seen in World War II or the Marshall Plan,” she told the Popular Online Aubrie cropped jeans J Brand Cheap Sale Best 100% Original Perfect For Sale 4sD4O
. In short, Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal would temporarily redirect the US economy towards avoiding catastrophic climate change. “We must again invest in the development, manufacturing, deployment, and distribution of energy, but this time green energy,” she said.

You can read Ocasio’s climate platform in full below:

In order to address runaway global climate change, Alexandria strongly supports transitioning the United States to a carbon-free, 100% renewable energy system and a fully modernized electrical grid by 2035. She believes renewable fuels must be produced in a way that achieves our environmental and energy security goals, so we can move beyond oil responsibly in the fight against climate change. By encouraging the electrification of vehicles, sustainable home heating, distributed rooftop solar generation, and the conversion of the power grid to zero-emissions energy sources, Alexandria believes we can be 100% free of fossil fuels by 2035.

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